Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
